大家好，我是菜鸟哥！
最近自己一直在学习理财相关的东西，所以后面一段时间，可能会多分享一些这方面的学习笔记
其实在学习之前，我一直在思考一个问题：为什么我们在市场上赚不了钱？可能基金还好点，只要行情不是特别差，你一直定投总会有多多少少有点收益的，但是其他市场就真不好说了。
观察了一下身边的朋友和同事，其实大多数人都是入门的。比如说有坚信价值投资的，拿着白马一拿就是好几年的；也有观察市场热点的，追涨杀跌玩的不亦乐乎。但是大家的收益都很一般，甚至亏钱的也不少。
所以，我在思考的时候就在想 价值投资和短线热点 这事。其实价值投资没有问题，但是拿的太久就是问题；短线热点也没有问题，但是没选对具体的个股基金就是问题。
并且，我自己是研究数据分析的，是不是可以在市场的基础上加一些数据分析导向的内容？或者是在数据的基础上，偏向于热点市场的板块？
目前来看，基于上面这个问题的思考，我是有一些小小的收获的。
但是我也还在学习中，今天的文章甚至后期的文章都只是一个阶段性的学习笔记，不敢说文章的方法适合于所有人。所以大家抄作业的时候也多多思考一下，毕竟方法是我的，但是钱是你的啊！
ok，说了些闲话，开始今天的正文。
今天的文章是对一个择时策略的复现，数据是基于每日大A北上资金进行的。这个策略很简单的一个应用：当市场处于持续低谷的时候，你可以加大你定投的比例；当市场开始火热一段时间了，你需要慢慢减少你定投的金额。
就像那句话：在别人贪婪的时候我恐惧，在别人空据的时候我贪婪。
以下是真正的正文：
在文章开始之前，先给大家普及一下北上资金的概念，懂的同学可以跳过去看下一节
北上资金?
在中国股市中有“南北”之称，一般“北”指的是沪深两市的股票，“南”指的是香港股票。因此，北上资金就是指从香港股票中流入大陆股市的资金，一般为香港资金以及国际资金。
从历史数据来看， 不管是长线短线，北上资金都比A股大部分投资者聪明。原因有很多，比如说：可能是外资的投资经验丰富信息渠道广，也有可能是内地部分游资通过北向资金通道进来，也就是换了一层马甲。
所以，在每天实盘的时候，大家可以关注北向资金的买入情况，偷懒一点的也可以跟着交易。但是但是但是，这里面有两个概念特别容易被大家混淆：净流入和净买入，其实它的公式很简单：
给大家解释下，外资每天买卖咱们A股都是有额度限制的，目前沪股通和深股通的额度都是每个交易日 520亿，而且是只要挂单就会占用额度，无论是否成交。
所以，当日资金净流入会包含当日成交买入额和当日申报但未成交的买单金额，那么净流入金额一定会大于或等于净买入金额，这是两者最大的区别。
建议大家看北向资金的时候还是要看净买入金额，因为净流入金额只能代表北向资金的一个购买意愿，并不能代表真实交易。
常见的，一般 标准的 财经网站你应该会看到下面这种图：
但是很多时候你看到的都只是一个净流入的数据，并没有直接显示净买入的数据。
其实也不是说这个数据不对，只是说净买入数据会更准确些，更能反映当前北上资金的真实情况。这个数据最准确的就是在港交所了，而且是有盘中实时动态播报的，大家可以去了解一下。
说完基础知识，再来说今天的重点：基于北向资金的择时策略实现：
其实用一句话就可以解释所谓的择时选股策略：基于指标，对指数进行择时（即判断指数方向），如果方向向上，就进行选股。
下图是华泰证券研究所的一篇报告，其中提到了一个基于北上资金的择时策略。正如文章开头所说，北上资金目前作为大A的风向标，具有一定的可参考性。
而报告中通过北上资金与沪深300的相关系数，也完美阐释了这一点：
该择时策略的具体内容是这样的：
策略理解起来很容易，但是怎么实现呢？
以下源码拿去即用（除了tushare需要安装，不过我想这个不用我教了吧），算是开源分享给大家。
1. 导入相应的库
截取了输出结果的今年的部分，如下图：
可以看到，截止到目前（8月30日收盘），策略给出的观点是看空，并且是从 7月26日 起就一直看空了，直到今天也是看空阶段。
去券商网站上看一下北上资金的历史数据，图是这样的：
从7月26号之后的（图中的红箭头）该策略给出的观点就是看空，但是你仔细看一下研报给的策略条件是，人家说的是：该日北向资金流入规模，而我们通过 tushare 获取到的是：北向资金的净买入金额
因为每日的净流入较净买入大很多，所以对应的 1.5倍标准差就需要相应的改动一下。
比如说，当你改成 上限+0.8 下限-0.8，它对应的策略是这样的：
当然了，这里的 0.8 其实是我自己乱改的，并没有经过回测验证，在这只是为了说明对应的数据不同，参数也要有所调整。
感兴趣的话大家可以去回测一下净买入金额对应的不同参数的收益结果，选一个最大的结果对应的参数，然后就可以开启轻松的定投模式了。
其实，我是有回测出最优参数的，但是担心你们用我的参数到时候亏钱了输不起，目前还是不公开出来了。
建议自己多试试，投资本就没有不劳而获的东西！或许你的参数收益会比我更优呢！
左手Python，右手Java，升职就业不愁啦！
<pre data-darkmode-bgcolor="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9); letter-spacing: 0.544px; text-size-adjust: auto; font-size: 16px; text-align: center; word-spacing: 1.6px;" data-darkmode-color="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" data-darkmode-original-color="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15862411819306="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15862411819306="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15862411819306="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" data-darkmode-original-color-15862411819306="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15862671987026="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15862671987026="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15862671987026="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" data-darkmode-original-color-15862671987026="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15864118999603="rgb(36, 36, 36)" 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0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-id="94086" data-color="#276ca3" data-tools="135编辑器" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><pre style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;color: rgb(63, 63, 63);letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-id="94086" data-color="#276ca3" data-tools="135编辑器" mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section mpa-from-tpl="t" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><pre style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: inherit;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><pre data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-style="letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; color: rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9); font-size: 16px; line-height: 25.6px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882396318564="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882396318564="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15900529136199="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" data-darkmode-original-color-15900529136199="rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9)" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: center;color: rgba(230, 230, 230, 0.9);line-height: 25.6px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-darkmode-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882384789136="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882396318564="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882396318564="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15900529136199="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15900529136199="rgb(0, 0, 0)" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;display: inline-block;clear: both;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="91842" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" 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break-word !important;"><section data-darkmode-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882384789136="rgb(0, 0, 0)" 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text-align: center; letter-spacing: 1.5px; background-image: url('https://www.zkxjob.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/wxsync-2022-07-a2a8a5e1e58f30392066a170034ee027.png'); background-size: 100% 100%; background-repeat: no-repeat; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356070738="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356071023="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(230, 230, 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36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15860613985508="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356070738="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356071023="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882384789136="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882384789136="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882396318564="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882396318564="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882396318564="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15900529136199="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15900529136199="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15900529136199="1" style="margin-left: 2px;outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;width: 20px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15860613985508="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356070738="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356071023="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882384789136="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882384789136="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882396318564="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882396318564="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882396318564="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15900529136199="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15900529136199="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15900529136199="1" style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-size: 14px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: left;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="outline: 0px;max-width: 100%;font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;white-space: pre-wrap;font-size: 12px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">点阅读原文,领AI全套资料</span></section></section></section></section></section></section></section>本篇文章来源于: 菜鸟学Python
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