知行编程网知行编程网  2022-05-31 07:00 知行编程网 |  隐藏边栏 |   抢沙发 |  13 
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3287亿！我用20行Python代码预测双十一成交额，猜中送红包哦


双十一来啦，自从阿里巴巴提出双十一狂欢节之后，双十一已经逐渐摆脱了“光棍节”的代称，而是逐渐的成为全民购物狂欢的代名词。一年一度的购物狂欢，刺激着广大的消费群体，也让店家们赚的盆满钵满。而双十一的一大看点，就是双十一的战绩，看看一天的时间内，能够有多少成交额。

小编也是一个Python爱好者，学了数据分析，机器学习这么多知识，不如用Python来预测一把今年的双十一的成交金额是多少。想想也很有趣，说干就干，动手写代码，整个代码大概20行，短小精悍，一起来看一下。



01

准备数据


巧媳妇难为无米之炊，要预测价格必须要有历史数据，于是小编从网上找了一些历史的淘宝，天猫的成交金额数据。从2009年以来，双十一淘宝/天猫的成交额就不断的刷新着新的历史记录，下表展示的是从2009年到2019年的十年中，淘宝/天猫的双十一成交额。


3287亿！我用20行Python代码预测双十一成交额，猜中送红包哦

可以看到，从2009年的0.52亿到2019年的2684亿，成交额足足翻了5100多倍，这不仅仅代表着电商近十年来的迅速蓬勃发展，更是国人富起来的表现！转眼间2020年的双十一就要来了。所以我们就来预测一下，今年的双十一，淘宝/天猫的成交额能够达到的高度。


02

20行代码预测


对于数据的预测，这里采用numpy库的polyfit来进行最小二乘法拟合。首先我们来看一下数据的分布。

3287亿！我用20行Python代码预测双十一成交额，猜中送红包哦

x坐标我们从2009年开始，依次减去2009得到x数值，对于values就是每年的成交额。可以看到，数据呈现一定规律的增长方式，我们首先来进行二次拟合，程序如下所示。

3287亿！我用20行Python代码预测双十一成交额，猜中送红包哦

首先，程序中，首先利用polyfit函数来进行拟合，并通过matplotlib库来将拟合结果可视化，最后利用R2进行拟合优度评价。这里的R2大家可以理解为一个指标，其数值一般介于0和1之间，且数值越大说明拟合的效果越好。
二次拟合的结果如下:

3287亿！我用20行Python代码预测双十一成交额，猜中送红包哦

可以看到数据拟合的可视化结果是非常不错的，而且R2达到了0.99963。拟合的二次方程式为：

30.24 x^{2} - 35.07 x + 7.375


把2020年，也就是x的值为11时带入上式，可以得到，预测的结果约为3281亿。接下来我们再来进行一个三次拟合，来看一下拟合的效果。

3287亿！我用20行Python代码预测双十一成交额，猜中送红包哦

可以看到，三次拟合的效果也是不错的，而且R2指数为0.99964，要优于二次拟合，其拟合的三次方程为：


0.1271 x^{3} + 28.33 x^{2} - 27.8 x + 2.797


将11带入上式可以得到2020年的预测成交额约为3294亿。与二次拟合预测的结果相差不大，可见，2020年预测的成交额在3281亿~3294亿上下浮动。


03

视频看一下


最后，小编预测一个3288亿作为我的预测结果。咱们双十一结束后再来看看预测结果到底行不行。




欢迎大家在留言区猜金额，若误差在10亿以内的，可以找小助手(后台输入：小助手）领奖品哦！


3287亿！我用20行Python代码预测双十一成交额，猜中送红包哦


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3287亿！我用20行Python代码预测双十一成交额，猜中送红包哦

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<pre style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;text-align: left;"><h1 style="white-space: pre-wrap;letter-spacing: 0.544px;font-family: 微软雅黑;"><section mpa-from-tpl="t" style=""><pre style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;word-spacing: 1px;line-height: inherit;"><pre style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: inherit;"><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-id="94086" data-color="#276ca3" data-tools="135编辑器" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section><section mpa-from-tpl="t"><pre style="color: rgb(63, 63, 63);letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: inherit;"><section data-mpa-template="t" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section data-id="94086" data-color="#276ca3" data-tools="135编辑器" mpa-from-tpl="t"><section style="text-align: left;"><section mpa-from-tpl="t" style="display: inline-block;"><pre style="letter-spacing: 0.544px;line-height: inherit;"><pre data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-style="letter-spacing: 0.544px; 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data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882384789136="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882396318564="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882396318564="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15900529136199="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15900529136199="rgb(0, 0, 0)" style="display: inline-block;clear: both;"><section data-brushtype="text" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15860613985508="1" data-style="padding: 18px 15px 20px 10px; color: rgb(86, 146, 214); text-align: center; letter-spacing: 1.5px; background-image: url('https://www.zkxjob.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/wxsync-2022-05-a2a8a5e1e58f30392066a170034ee027.png'); background-size: 100% 100%; background-repeat: no-repeat; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356070738="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356071023="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882384789136="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882384789136="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882396318564="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882396318564="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882396318564="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15900529136199="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15900529136199="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15900529136199="1" style="padding: 18px 15px 20px 10px;background-size: 100% 100%;background-image: url('https://www.zkxjob.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/wxsync-2022-05-a2a8a5e1e58f30392066a170034ee027.png');color: rgb(86, 146, 214);letter-spacing: 1.5px;background-repeat: no-repeat;"><section data-darkmode-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15860613985508="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356070738="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356071023="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882384789136="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882384789136="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882396318564="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882396318564="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882396318564="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15900529136199="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15900529136199="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15900529136199="1" style="display: flex;justify-content: center;align-items: center;"><section data-darkmode-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15860613985508="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356070738="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356071023="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882384789136="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882384789136="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882396318564="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882396318564="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882396318564="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15900529136199="rgb(230, 230, 230)" data-darkmode-original-color-15900529136199="rgb(0, 0, 0)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15900529136199="1" style="margin-left: 2px;width: 20px;"></section><section data-brushtype="text" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15860613985508="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15860613985508="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15860613985508="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15860613985508="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356070738="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356070738="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356070738="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356070738="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15870356071023="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15870356071023="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15870356071023="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15870356071023="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882384789136="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882384789136="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882384789136="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882384789136="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15882396318564="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15882396318564="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15882396318564="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15882396318564="1" data-darkmode-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(36, 36, 36)" data-darkmode-original-bgcolor-15900529136199="rgb(255, 255, 255)" data-darkmode-color-15900529136199="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-original-color-15900529136199="rgb(51, 51, 51)" data-darkmode-bgimage-15900529136199="1" style="font-size: 14px;color: rgb(51, 51, 51);text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: 楷体, 楷体_GB2312, SimKai;font-size: 15px;">点这里，获取新手福利</span></section><p style="text-align: left;"><br  /></p></section></section></section></section></section></section>

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